28 April, 2005: And with preliminary results in, there's still all to play for (or, I only do it to annoy)

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So, based on the first 302 respondents to the General Election 2005 Estimation Quiz who have expressed a voting intention, here are the results so far:

Very preliminary results

These results should be taken with a pinch of salt, because of the very small sample size and the self-selecting nature of the sample. But, that aside, we discover that:

(In the plot above, I've obtained the `all respondents' curve by weighting each party's supporters to reflect the average of recent opinion polls; I won't claim that that's likely to be a very effective way to produce a balanced sample of the population.)

Still, at this stage the numbers playing are far too small to make any very accurate claims about the population at large. So come on, people! Do your teams proud!

Copyright (c) 2005 Chris Lightfoot; available under a Creative Commons License.